Barack Obama pushed past Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries largely on his stance against the war in Iraq. As one of his principle positions, it would be political suicide for him to change his policy at this point in the game, therefore he must “stay the course” as it were, and continue to promise the American people an immediate withdrawal of troops under an Obama Presidency. Thus far this has been working in his favor as a small majority of Americans agree that we should withdraw from Iraq, but I believe as the election draws closer, Iraq will become Obama’s weakness rather than his strength.

His recent conversation with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari leads me to believe he is already softening his position on Iraq, however he refuses to do so publicly for fear of losing his anti-war base:

The foreign minister said “my message” to Mr. Obama “was very clear. . . . Really, we are making progress. I hope any actions you will take will not endanger this progress.” He said he was reassured by the candidate’s response, which caused him to think that Mr. Obama might not differ all that much from Mr. McCain. Mr. Zebari said that in addition to promising a visit, Mr. Obama said that “if there would be a Democratic administration, it will not take any irresponsible, reckless, sudden decisions or action to endanger your gains, your achievements, your stability or security. Whatever decision he will reach will be made through close consultation with the Iraqi government and U.S. military commanders in the field.”

Despite Obama’s public statements that he will push for an immediate withdrawal, Mr. Zebari says Obama has assured him that he would heed the advice of the Iraqi government and U.S. military commanders… which incidentally are currently advising not to pull out. If Mr. Zebari’s account of the conversation is accurate, it is at least mildly reassuring to those of us who believe a continued military presence Iraq is in our nations best interest.

Obama however, seems to have a different opinion of the conversation between himself and Zebari, one which emphasized Iraqi sovereignty and expressed the need to set a timetable for troop withdrawal.

At a press availability in Michigan, I [Jake Tapper] asked Obama if Zebari had expressed any concern to him that his plans to withdrawal U.S. troops as president would undo any security advances.

“No, he did not express that,” Obama said. “He did emphasize his belief that we’ve made real progress and I think was eager to see political accommodations between the factions follow up in the wake of this progress.

“I think that he expressed what President Maliki has expressed as well,” Obama continued, “which is that the Iraqis are obviously concerned about their sovereignty and are not seeking a long term occupation by the U.S. And so my sense is that we should be able to execute a withdrawal and set a timeframe - a timetable that continues to allow US forces to support Iraqi forces in going after terrorists, that continues to train the Iraqi police and military as long as we’re not training militias that are turning on each other. One area that I think is important to emphasize is that as a consequence of a huge spike in oil prices - the Iraqi government’s budget is twice as large as it anticipated and so I think its important for the Iraqis to start picking up more of the tab both for reconstruction efforts as well as the need to continue to boost their military capacity.”

(As a side note, I would like to express my agreement with Senator Obama’s statement that the Iraqi government needs to start picking up more of the tab.)

While Obama has at least publicly recognized the progress made in Iraq, he appears undeterred in his opinion that a withdrawal in the near future is our best course of action. The progress he was referencing were those 18 benchmarks set by Congress which we heard so much about last year, which have been curiously absent from the news this year. As Abe Greenwald reports today, that is because most of the 18 benchmarks have been met:

Seven of the 18 benchmarks relate to Iraq’s national security. We can just about put a check next to each one. We can even look at some of those and marvel at the low expectations behind them. Number 9, for example: “Providing three trained and ready Iraqi brigades to support Baghdad operations.” There are far more than three battle-ready brigades in Baghdad. The galvanization of Sunni Awakening groups who have wrested their country back from al-Qaeda and the decisive efforts of Iraqi forces in Basra and Sadr City have been the two most vital developments of the entire post-Saddam period.

The other eleven benchmarks are the political ones. And these are not so easily sniffed at. However, with Iraq’s parliament passing three critical laws in February and the Maliki government’s surprising tenacity, the four most challenging of these benchmarks have been met: a plan for provincial governance, de-Baathification reform, an amnesty for former insurgents, and legislation on the procedures to form semiautonomous regions.

Of the remaining benchmarks, some were always too ill-defined to be worthwhile. (Consider 18, for example: “Ensuring that Iraq’s political authorities are not undermining or making false accusations against members of the Iraqi Security Forces.” Can we even say with confidence that America’s political authorities are not making false accusations against our own armed forces?) Others are also subjective, but admittedly important — equality under the law being one. And on these there is continued and demonstrable progress.

Obama faces a tough task in the general election as Iraq will be one of the most prominent issues debated on between himself and McCain. While it is clear he has begun to tone down his rhetoric with regards to “immediate withdrawal“, his website still indicates that is what he plans. “Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.”

As the American people begin to learn more about the progress being made in Iraq (the media silence on the issue is deafening), I believe he will eventually admit it will be necessary for a continued troop presence there… although he will never admit he was wrong.

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Barack Obama, Election 2008, Features, Iraq, John McCain, Media